Monday, October 1, 2018

Looking for a pattern

I have completed 11 disc golf tournaments at this time in 2018 and a few weeks ago, I noticed an unusual thing.

Every round played at an event gets a rating based the scores by all players in the event. Though I do not know exactly how the rating of the player with the best score of a round is determined, I know that for every shot worse than the best player there, the rating is lower (from what I have seen) 8 to 12 points per shot and the exact number is based on the difficulty and number of holes played in the round.

An easy course with 18 will be close to 12 per while a difficult course with more than 18 will be close to 8. Anyone could take a rating from one round or event and compare to other rounds or events played to see how the player would have scored or placed.

Of the 11 events I played in from March through September, six of them had an average between 841 and 850 while the other 5 had an average between 883 and 894. That is over a 3 shot gap between the 6 below average events (for a player whose overall rating has been close to 860 since May) and the 5 significantly above average ones (including a 4 round and a 3 round event).

The next step is to figure out if there is a common theme to one set or the other so it can either be avoided or incorporated in future events. For weather, days off work before the event, weeks between events, past performance at the course, and level of opponents, there were good events and bad ones in all situations and I could not figure it out.

While driving home after event #11, had a thought. There were three below average events from early June through July 4th weekend and I realized the timing. The extra money made last year was spent and my long term situation at work was not well due to the announcement about a lost customer and things got better with my game after I started to make more money making deliveries and found out about that I now have somewhere to work.

It makes sense that the idea of not having immediate financial concerns can make my play better and with 7 of the 11 rounds since I started making deliveries being 875-911, the theory seems valid at this point. Three of the below average rounds could be attributed to fatigue (the cart I got will help) and the 4th was from poor disc choice and strategy decisions.

No comments: