Thursday, January 29, 2015

prop time 2015

Like the last couple of years this is what I would bet on Super Bowl XLIX: (hopefully this time in a font that posts)

These in base $100:

Wilson MVP +350 (X Brady)
Wilson first TD +1200 (X Lafell)
Brady over 36.5 att -135   +235
Brady 2 tot TD pass +250 (x4)
Gronk over 74.5 rec yd -125 (X68)
Wilson 3 tot TD pass +500 (x2)
Wilson over 42.5 rush yd -125 (X39)
Wilson rush TD +200 (X)
Gronk over 100 red yd +190 (X68)
Wilson first Sea TD +600 (X Lynch)
Sea wins 19-24 +1400 (X)
Sea first TD of game by rush +400 (X NE pass)
NE under 24.5 pt -115 (x 28)
Sea over 24 pt -115   +215
Sea -14.5 +450 (X)
Sea -7.5 +240 (X)
7 total TD +500   +600
Sea 5 TD +750  (X3)
2 tot FG +350   (X1)
tot 51-60 +275  +375
missed FG +110  (X)
NE 4th down conversion +130  (X)
Sea 4+ players score +120     +220

These two bets would be for base $500 as opposed to base $100

Seattle win -105 (X)
over 48 tot -115  +1,075

As one can tell from the bets, I have Seattle winning by a large margin. (38-17) Why? Over the past two seasons, Seattle is 8-3 playing on natural grass while New England is 2-6 with one of the wins by three points over a team that went 1-15. Since the game will be played on natural grass, this matchup between two otherwise even teams should not end up close.

Total bet $3,515
Total collected $2,720
Net result -$795

It was ironic that the two interceptions that Seattle got took out two starting players which New England was able to exploit to score 28 points. I am still stunned by the play call on second and goal from the one yard line with plenty of time. Though a touchdown would have given Seattle the win and probable victory, I would have lost one prop bet and possibly gained another if Wilson is named MVP.

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