Sunday, January 19, 2014

Baccarat and the NFC Championship game

Being CDO (like OCD but with the letters in alphabetical order as they should be) the concept of balance was something that would often lead to losses at casino gambling as I would leave during a hot streak believing it would turn equally as cold and plodding through a cold streak expecting things to turn around.

I then read a book (probably given as a gift) that changed my philosophy logically explaining that hot streaks should be ridden and cold streaks should make a person not bet and leave the table. The phrase that stuck in my head is: A person loses once betting on a streak and wins once betting against it. Using that logic definitely made my casino trips less bad and for a short streak in 1996 profitable. Unfortunately on the trips made alone on my birthday and Dec 25 with my mom and aunt I reverted to my old form where I plodded through horrible luck on my birthday and on Dec 25 stopped early up a couple hundred and then saw the next deal where my hand would have been dealt a pair of aces.

Baccarat is the game which the streak strategy is most prevalent as there is a choice of two bets to make and the casino provides cards (and now a display) where a gambler can see the recent results.

Though I like playing that game, I usually stand out when I play it since it is located in the high stakes room where people play much more than the $10 or $15 minimum that I play and that it is by far the game preferred by players of Asian origin. On Dec 25th, the Horseshoe casino closed their craps table due to lack of players but had 18 baccarat tables filled with people many of whom took their shuttle from Chinatown.

If you have read this far you are now wondering what the hell does all this have to do with today's NFC title game versus the 49ers and the Seahawks, a game which I believe is even since the 49ers are playing better right now.

Over the previous 8 seasons there have been patterns (defined as a repeating streak of 3 or more occasions) with Super Bowl champions and participants. The last three Super Bowl champions played during the first round of the playoffs and since the 49ers are the only remaining team that did, logic would initially dictate that they will win and then in 2 weeks and that had been my thought.

However, that is not the only pattern. Before the past three years there were two winners that were a team on a bye and before that three winners that played the first round. So there is a 3-2-3 pattern which would suggest a Seattle win.

If this was happening at a baccarat table I would play the money on Seattle as long as the person representing the casino would have provided enough time for me to have made up my mind.

The AFC title game is far less complicated in my mind. Since it is going to be 60 degrees in Denver (while people in the Chicago area deal with 20s and soon sub zero lows) Peyton Manning should be able to run his offense normally which should be too much for New England and its injured receiving corp.

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