Thursday, January 17, 2013

Zemeckis theory

The Houston Astros moving to the American League for the 2013 season now means that the mathematical odds of every team winning a pennant is now 15-1 and the World Series 30-1 including the Cubs who were 34.67-1 having been in a 6 team division.

Updating my chart from 3 years ago, the mathematical odds of the Cubs not winning a title since 1908 by chance are now 217.8-1 and a pennant since 1945 are 464.2-1.

I have also recently seen multiple incorrect posts stating it was the day Marty McFly visited the future in Back to the Future II. It is October 21, 2015.

How do these fit? On the news feed Marty McFly saw in the future Hill Valley, it stated the Cubs won the World Series beating Miami for the title. At the time it was a joke since there was no Miami team in baseball in 1989 and when the area got a team a little while later, it was called the Florida Marlins.

Last year the city of Miami  FINALLY (9 years too late for me) built a baseball only stadium. They also changed the name of the team to the Miami Marlins.

Since Miami is in the National League the Cubs can't beat the Marlins to win the World Series. However, they can beat the Marlins to win the NL pennant to get to the World Series. When the movie was made, there were two playoff rounds in baseball so October 21st was a plausible day for the playoffs to end. After an additional round was added in 1995, the World Series champion is crowned the last week of October if not in the first couple of days of November.

Therefore, I believe that the Cubs will beat Miami in 2015 to win the NL pennant since the 21st is just after the time the National League Championship Series would end and I will make sure I have a bet on it.

Do I hope to win that bet? NO! I never want to see the Cubs win a title. In 1998 and 2007, I made a bet believing the Cubs would make the playoffs and have a chance to win the title and my Cubs fan wife was annoyed that I made a bet for something I did not want to happen.

In September 2003, I won $2,000 in a baseball handicapping contest and my wife said that ruined her enjoyment of the Cubs winning the division title and their whole playoff run which infamously ended. I know that if I collect a bet on the Cubs winning the 2015 NL pennant, it would ruin my wife's enjoyment of the title since I would be correct in my predictions and she hates it when I'm right about anything.

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