Analyzation of the unexpected

Tonight on a frozen field in Minnesota, the Chicago Bears clinched the 2010 division title. Had I been a bookie, I would have lost a lot of money expecting them to win at the most 6 games and made odds reflect that opinion.

How did this happen? They stayed healthy unlike the last couple of seasons where players were getting injured constantly. They have also benefitted from timely injuries to key oppponent players.



The large X designate all pro players who were out. The positions in the other column represent key all pro players who were not in the lineup.

The 4 losses came against teams that were healthy and did not have a key player get hurt during the game.

Score radio personality Dan Bernstein said it best early in the season: The Bears are a team that is decent enough to win a division title if all the pieces fall into place. In 2010, that most definitely happened.

crunching numbers

This year the yahoo fantasy league added points against to the stats and made them retroactive to the previous years in the league. This allowed me the ability to more easily examine the points scored against players in a season and discovered an error I made about 2007 in a post I made in August.



One more point against per game than I initially determined in 2007 and I included 2010.

I also discovered that my 2007 season was not the worst as far as points scored against than expected:



Though I did not even have the worst schedule in 07 what bothered me was that I by far had the most points scored and deserved a fate similar to the one I had in 2010. The person who set the record this year had the worst total in the league.

Sith lord fantasy football

I have noticed that with many things in my life my best performances happen when I am angry including bowling, golf, and Scrabble. I am guessing my anger overcomes my nerves and gives me focus. Of course there are times when the anger created problems rather than success.

In 2007, I had the best team by far in the league but only finished 6-8. I lost one game and a playoff berth by making a wrong decision about an injured player which I made hung over in Akron, OH at 9AM after a very memorable party the night before.

The pattern of 4 people in the league having injured, inactive or bye week players in their lineup against one other team really got me upset. When they played my team with a fully active lineup, they would have their high score for the year. In the last week, one team purposely held players out of his lineup to prevent me from making the playoffs. Had I not woke up on the day of the 2008 draft violently ill in an Indianapolis hotel room and had to stop twice on I-65 to vomit, I probably would have started a fight.

I decided to instead take out my anger on the league. In 2009, I won my division title and league championship and last Sunday clinched the division title once again having the best team. Here is the standings: (I deleted the names of the other teams.)



For the 4th straight year, my opponents are scoring more against me than the rest of the league but by only 1 point per week this year. That is why my record is at my personal best 10-3. (I am playing the person who held players out of his lineup in 07. Right now, everyone on my team is on the bench.)

When I won the league title last year, I was not real excited being more satisfied from exacting revenge than happy. I am feeling the same way now. After the worry about losing the two weeks before clinching the division title I am comtemplating my resoning for continuing and considering no longer playing just like I did with Scrabble four years ago.

Rockin like Weird AL

On his website, Weird Al Yankovic was asked about his music appearing in either Guitar Hero or Rack Band and though he was interested stated neither Activision nor Harmonix (comanies that produce the game series) were interested.

Earlier in the day I was asked about his parodies appearing in the game and I stated that since the music was written by other people it would be very difficult to obtain the rights to produce the parody version. Personally I would really enjoy if either Hardware Store or Albuquerque (my two favorite original Weird Al songs) or any other of his original songs made the game but most people only know the parodies and would not care for his original material. In a post in November 2009 I explained that about half his released material are original songs and I doubt either company would put the effort into creating them for the game.

That got me thinking .... How many songs available for Rock Band have been parodied by Weird Al and how many have appeared in his polkas? The answer is 48 total. I turned the results into a chart:



In his song Bedrock Anthem, Weird Al parodied both Under the Bridge and Give it Away and since they both are available in the game, I counted them both. Also, Enter Sandman (available in a polka medley) and Give It Away though appearing on the disk for Rock Band and Rock Band 2 respectively were among 10 songs that were not allowed to transfer to the hard drive to play in Rock Band 3 due to licensing issues.

free movie time

Thanks to the HBO/Cinemax free 10 day special plus the ATT U-Verse special over Thanksgiving weekend, I was able to catch up on movies that I have never seen and see some movies that I have not seen in a while: Here is a list and some comments. Note: There are spoilers.

Movies I had never seen before:

Army of Darkness: Heard about Bruce Campbell and the movie through songs. I could see the appeal though it was cheesy at times.

Coraline: Though the plot was typical I enjoyed how well the animation looked.

Up: As heard by others the beginning of the movie was as good as expected. Unfortunately, everything after could not live up to it in spite of them trying.

The Princess and the Frog: Another movie that was really enjoyed by my friends. I could see why. The music and story was well done even though I should have figured out the plot.

Kung Pau: I had seen parts of it but never all in one viewing. My daughter was watching it with me and after the fight in the meadow stated it was the dumbest thing she has ever seen and wants the 45 minutes of her life she spent watching up to that point back.

Muppets Take Manahttan: Never saw it before. Never want to see it again.

Frost/Nixon: I heard about those interviews and after watching the well done movie want to see if that is how things went.

Invictus: I am among the few people who knows the story of the 1995 Rugby World Cup and that event made me realize how big of an advantage the host country of world wide events have. I was very impressed by how accurate the events of those games and how well the action of rugby were portrayed.

Movies I have seen before:

Avatar: Saw it in 3D on New Years Day and after a long night before missed part of it. Very enjoyable in regular vision and I still don't understand why the love scene was so scrutinized. I would not mind my ten year old daughter watching it.

Apollo 13: I am still amazed by how things were done in the world of 1970.

Animal House: Since I had to pause the movie for about 15 minutes whuile watching it on Friday morning, I did skip by scenes I did not feel appropriate for my kid to see. She said she would love to scream food fight at school. I did not realize Donald Sutherland was in the movie and after seeing Apollo 13, tried to connect him to Kevin Bacon. Then I noticed a very young Kevin Bacon on the screen.

Spiderman 2: By far the best of the 3.

Blues Brothers: Watched it with a group of friends late Saturday night. 6 people in the room all grew up in 6 different states. Unlike other movies that depict other areas, the Blues Brothers seems to only be enjoyed by those who live in the Chicago area. For some reason, while watching the movie, I was trying to figure out how it could be shadow casted with me playing Jake when someone asked if that movie was ever shadow casted. One thing for sure, it would need a lot of people many playing multiple parts for it to have a chance.

Game number 64

Tonight is the one night in four years where I am the embodiment of the enemy. Yes, the Chicago Bears are playing the Miami Dolphins at Sun Life Stadium on a Thursday night NFL Network special broadcast. Since the game starts shortly after 7PM, I was planning on not doing my Dementia Radio show since there is no way I can do my show and watch the game since my casting computer is in my basement and the tv is upstairs. (Decided to do show after all and just check on cast during comercial)

It has always been uncomfortable when these two teams met when I was a kid but things changed in 1985 when the Dolphins inspired by members of the perfect 1972 team, blew out the previously undefeated Bears.

Anyway, here is a synopsis of the Bears/Dolphins games over the last 25 years:

Dec 2, 1985 (Miami): Starting Bears QB Jim McMahon was on the sideline still recovering from injury. The Dolphins were 8-4 suffering the effects from losing the previous super bowl at the beginning of the season but playing much better at this time. Dolphins QB Dan Marino behind his strong offensive line and with his WR had the perfect system to counter the Bears agressive "46" defense and was able to complete passes before the Bears pass rush could get to him. Their defense sold out completely on stopping Walter Payton early and forced backup QB Steve Fuller to try to beat him and he could not. Though Jim McMahon played the second half and Walter Payton finished with over 100 yards rushing, it was not enough and Miami won 38-24. (the wireless internet code for my house is 3824DEC285)

Sep 4, 1988 (Chicago): Though Payton retired, Neal Anderson was leading the Bears rushing attack and they were still a decent team. The Dolphins by then were not. Though Marino was still there his offensive line and wide receivers were nowhere as good and their defense was bad. Behind 2 rushing touchdowns each by Anderson and McMahon, the Bears won 34-7 controlling the ball for almost 45 minutes, the second longest time of posession in their team history.

Nov 24, 1991 (Chicago): On a cold, windy day near the lake where snow fell, neither offense could do much. The Bears were leading late when punter Maury Buford dropped a snap giving Miami field position and Marino threw his only touchdown pass of the day to bring the game into overtime. They got the kickoff and drove the field making a field goal to win 16-13.

Nov 13, 1994 (Miami): The 1994 Bears were probably one of the worst teams ever to make the NFL playoffs. Though 10th in points allowed with 307, they were 24th out of 28 in points scored with 271. Four times during the year and in the playoffs, they were down three touchdowns. The Dolphins were on their way to winning their division. The week before the game, I said the Bears were going to win. Why? The previous two weeks, the Dolphins running back and fullback got hurt and were missing the game along with their number 2 wide receiver. They averaged 10 receptions per game.

As expected, the Dolphins were able to move the ball but without their running backs, were unable to get into the end zone until late. The Bears did not do much either scoring their two touchdowns on a fake field goal attempt and after a fumble. They made a field goal to take the lead and blocked the Dolphins' game tying attempt to win 17-14.

Oct 27, 1997 (Miami): The Dolphins were a decent team but the Bears were not being 0-7. With the Bears coming off a bye week and the game being changed to Monday night on Saturday due to the World Series in Florida needing game 7, I was worried but still expected a Dolphins' win and the Dolphins came out flat. Except for a 71 yard reverse, they did nothing the first 28 minutes of the game and the Bears were up 15-7 after a TD, two field goals and a safety. When the Dolphins scored a touchdown at the end of the first half, Jimmy Johnson tried chasing the 2 point defecit and failed.

After the Bears got their third field goal, the Dolphins scored on a fumble return and again failed on the two point conversion being up 19-18. Two more Dolphins TDs put them up 15. However, Bears QB Erik Kramer threw two late TDs against a tiring Dolphins defense and after converting a 2 point try sent the game into ot.

The Bears got the ball first and after completing a 30 yard pass after the 40 second clock expired, kicked a game winning field goal 36-33. That night, I learned to not go for two until you absolutely have to.

Dec 9, 2002 (Miami): With the NFL restructure, it was 5 years between games. The Bears were still bad. The Dolphins were a different team with Dan Marino retired and Ricky Williams rushing the ball. I was waiting for 5 years to return the comments I heard. Ironically, that day at work we had a meeting about personal conduct towards others and along with talking about religious and personal values, sports were mentioned.

Anyway it was not much of a game played in a downpour. Williams had 212 rushing yards and 2 TDs. Henry Burris threw his first touchdown pass late to make the final score 27-9 Miami.

What was done at halftime did not sit well with me. The Dolphins retired Larry Csonka's number 39. At the end of his speech, he thanked the 1985 team for beating the Bears. Fortunately the city's disgust with the Bears did not create any feedback.

Nov 5, 2006 (Chicago) : Daunte Culpepper was going to make the difference for the Dolphins. He didn't. By then the Dolphins were 1-6 and had Joey Harrington at QB. The Bears were on their way to playing in the Super Bowl and were 7-0. For a month I was telling anyone who would listen that the 72 Dolphins will be able to do their annual champaigne toast after the Bears lost to Miami and every Bears game was cementing my belief more. Why? The Dolphins were coming off a bye and I knew Bears QB Rex Grossman is not the same player in bad weather and figured the timing was right.

People were wanting to make bets with me including having me eat dolphin meat when they lost with them eating bear met if the "impossible" (their words, not mine) happens. Them eating bear meat would not make the win better for me and me eating dolphin meat would make it worse so I realized making that bet would be stupid. I also turned down an offer from the VP of production to attend the game with him since I did not want to be the target of drunk and angry Bears fans when they lost. (those were my words to him)

Dolphins' DE/LB Jason Taylor won the defensive player of the year award in that game with 3 sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception return for a touchdown. Fueled by 6 Bears turnovers, the Dolphins won 31-13.

The next day, not one person commented to me about the game. I was holding up one hand to my ear Hulk Hogan style to enjoy the silence while smiling.

I stated in August that the only way the 2010 Bears will look like the 1985 version is by being down by 21 points in Miami at halftime. Nothing I've seen this year had made me change that thought until November 14th when the Dolphins' top two QB and Jake Long, the best offensive lineman in the game, were injured. With their third string QB probably starting the game and Long questionable, I will be starting the Bears defense on my fantasy team. (Note: I make the best fantasy choices for my team and though I would want to see the Dolphins score 40 points, I do not see it happening.)

I only have one hope for the game and that is of the Dolphins' organization: Please do NOT honor the 1985 team at halftime since it has been 25 years. Though I appreciate what happened that night, it would be in bad taste and since they did not even make it to the Super Bowl, they don't deserve it.

a new demographic

Though ages ending in zero are the most celebrated, the ones in five are considered important by society since it changes how people are defined. The former retirment age, AARP membership and categories of people for advertising purposes are based on ages ending in five.

Last month, I had my yearly meeting with my insurance agent who examined a couple of my policies and made some changes. I was also reminded my life insurance policy will renew and I will be reevaluated as far as risk since things change with people.

Knowing weight can put a person in a higher risk category like tobacco, diabetes, blood pressure medication or history, I asked about that chart and saw this:



For weight, there are three levels of increased premiums. I just listed the ones where the additional cost would occur.

Though my weight at that time 284 barely put me out of the range, now being 45 puts me over. Since then, I have gotten to just under 280 but I still have over 10 lb to go. I just need to sometime within the next 365 days lose the weight necessary to keep my premiums from more than doubling rather than going up about 25%.

The discount rate? Would be nice but by getting to that point, the base rate would go down but I would be placed in a higher category by losing more than 25 pounds in a year.