Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Right idea, wrong bet

Many times while betting on a horse race, I will figure out how the winning horse in a race will run as far as its position on the track but the horse I believe will be in that position doesn't end up there and another one wins.

In January 2013, I realized that the Back to the Future 2 scene on Oct 21, 2015 could be interpreted with the Chicago Cubs sweeping Miami to win the National League Championship Series on or just before that date. I called it Zemekis Theory and posted to this blog about it then.

In January this year, I made a bet on the Cubs to win the pennant and thought I had a chance but the Mets pitching staff and one previously unknown player overcame the Cubs lineup. I then realized the error in the theory which others in the previous 2 1/2 years mentioned to me.

It involves the Chicago Cubs winning a championship.

Knowing that a 4 game sweep would potentially finish on Oct 21, 2015 and that Vegas was flooded with bets on the Cubs, the correct bet that applied the Zemeskis Theory would have been on the Mets to sweep the 4 game series which would have been at least 12-1 odds and probably higher.

Anyway, now that the Chicago Cubs have again failed to win a meaningful championship (unlike the two playoff wins the team and its fans celebrated earlier this month) I decided to update the chart I made in 2009 showing the mathematical odds of the Cubs winning a World Series or National League title:


New mathematical odds of the Cubs not winning a World Series since 1908: 238.76-1
New mathematical odds of the Cubs not winning the NL pennant since 1945: 571.66-1




Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Stormed by Paul

There is a "freemium" game on Xbox called World of Tanks. It plays like Call of Duty in that teams of 15 players compete live against each other but with everyone in a tank.

There are different types of tanks and different levels of them and the server pairs groups of similar levels and types in each match contested on different types of terrain raging from narrow streets to mountain passes to large fields.

Since the first victory on each tank every day gets a bonus to their XP, I usually play until I get a win on all my active tanks I play which are varied types on levels ranging from 5-7.

I had a level 6 light tank and was happy to see that the server put me in a game on a large hilly field but a little down when I realized the tanks in the game range from level 6 to 8 but there was one artillery unit on each team. That made my plan simple: Go to one edge of the field, zoom to get behind the other group of tanks and take out the artillery unit since they have the least armor but the largest shell which can hit any uncovered tank anywhere on the board.

I then noticed the gamertag of the person with the atry: Paulnotstorm. (former member of DaVinci's Notebook and half the comedy music/you tube series group Paul and Storm) I called out to my daughter to watch. I got to the edge of the field, passed one tank which did minor damage to my vehicle as I zoomed by but I got to the far end. As I went across, I got the warning I was noticed and hurried to find the arty. When I did, instead of facing the other end of the board, Paul's tank was facing me along with at least 2 other tanks as my tank was hit multiple times and destroyed before I got off a shot.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Longest simple trip for groceries

Last Saturday knowing I had something later, I put on pants over my gym shorts and without socks in shoes left for a quick trip for groceries some for an event later that evening, multiple phone calls later, I went close to 100 miles.

The initial trip is in black and each additional segment is a different color with each dot a destination.

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Not wanting to be a "king"

Since I stopped playing fantasy football, I have been asked about the weekly fantasy football leagues which I see and hear advertised constantly this time of year.

I explain this way: It is neither fantasy nor a league.

The idea of rotisserie sports which is now called fantasy sports is that players are in leagues competing against each other by drafting a team of players and managing them through a season releasing, acquiring, and trading players while determining which ones to put in their lineup.

The weekly games are more similar to team confidence pools in which people pick who wins games. Most of those contests involve selecting players who have a value assigned to them keeping under a maximum.

What made me successful in fantasy was being able to determine who over the long haul will combine for the best outcome for 16 weeks and not one and by putting the time and energy to make my squad as good as possible.

That does not translate in the weekly contests. So why don't I play fantasy football? No longer willing to devote the time and energy I used to and don't trust other players or leagues any more.

Twisting Homer Simpson stated in an early episode, I am OK with ice cream without toppings since for too long, I was worried so much about the toppings that I could not enjoy the product.

Thursday, August 27, 2015

What does #8 mean?

This post is not what I was planning it to be. This was to be a detailed summary of keeping track of my steps for 42 days and comparing it to the 100+ coworkers in my company. The 690,000+ steps I walked put me 8th overall which would have won me a t-shirt that won't fit my 3X body. It would have been 2nd in my building out of about 40 people only less than someone who has ran a marathon but did not win any "team" prizes since two of his randomly assigned "teammates" ended up in the bottom 10.

I was going to compare steps on days at work and not working, mention that during the 5 days of Gencon, I took fewer steps than if I was working, wonder how many more steps I would have taken had I played in the 3 disc golf tournaments I didn't play, and most of all, I was going to wonder how an old, fat, broken down, arthritic man who takes medicine used in chemotherapy to manage his 24/7 pain could finish 8th.

Last Sunday, day 38, I walked about 4,000 steps to a place that has a wings special before 4PM. After placing my order, I emptied my pockets of my phone, Ipod, earpiece, and pedometer to make it more comfortable to eat. The pedometer fell to the floor and the display became illegible. I decided to get a FitBit because the idea of other people seeing the number of steps I am taking does inspire me to take more at home and no doubt that has helped me lose 7lb during the step challenge. Since it was cheaper and that I don't like the idea of one on my arm, I got the one that attaches to my pants just like the one I had.

Once I synced my device to my tablet and got FitBit friends, I noticed something. Their daily step goals are less than 1/3 or 2/3 of my average and comparing my steps to theirs is futile. I then realized why. Those people have a job or life that doesn't require them to walk anywhere near what I take just like most everyone at my company. Those people also know that if they spend an hour sitting at a computer typing, they won't be doubled over in pain after getting up.

The phrase "5 decades of excuses" then applies as I try to justify everything that is wrong. Even though I lost the weight I demanded of myself to play in a tournament, a practice round played yesterday shows that my right arm/elbow is still not healed enough to compete so I can't play on Sep 13th liked I hoped.

Disc golf tournaments as well as conventions are the things that give me reason to drag myself off the couch at 5:15 to get to work. When those things are not able to provide the relief from life that I need, it leaves me empty especially when they disappear. As I hustled at work today trying to get things done as someone needed a day off to see a doctor, ugly thoughts rampaged through my brain. The concept of "accidentally" falling on the tracks as a commuter (or freight train) approaches always makes itself known when I walk across tracks even if there is no train in the area. The thought of making a public statement in November about making sure there won't be "6 decades of excuses" then ending things suddenly also appeared.

I have stated for years that if I did everything I wanted to do in life, I would have died in a JV home in the 70s. I know I lack the courage to attempt to make any those thoughts real. If I did not have courage while alone and friendless in 1996, I won't have it now. Life is special because it is finite and during many days, I am reminded about that including while typing this entry. More than likely my arm/elbow will heal and I will play in a tournament again even if it means next year in which I am qualified to play in the 2016 amateur worlds in Madison, WI July 9-16 2016. I am already registered for Windycon in November as well as Marscon and FuMPFeST in 2016 and to be honest, things are looking real good for the Dolphins this season.

Thursday, August 6, 2015

What is a home game?

As Super Bowl XIX wound down to the 38-16 49ers win over Miami, I was not happy. I told my father it was a home game for the 49ers who claimed that since the 49ers did not play home games in Sanford Stadium in Palo Alto, CA it was a neutral site game. I stated that if Candlestick Park was ever unusable due to an earthquake, the 49ers would play in Stanford and reminded my father of that statement when in November 1989 the 49ers had to play a home game there after the same earthquake which disrupted the 1989 World Series.

That conversation came up again as the 49ers moved to Levi's Stadium in San Jose which as the map shows is farther away from San Francisco than Stanford Stadium and today after hearing ad rates, looked up Super Bowl 50 on Wikipedia where it states: The San Francisco Bay Area last hosted in 1985 (Super Bowl XIX), held at Stanford Stadium in Stanford, California, won by the home team 49ers. (49ers head coach Bill Walsh is quoted as saying if felt like a home game)





So what do I have to gain by presenting this information for someone who died almost three years ago? One of the reasons I post to this site or to a private Google doc is to get it out of my head. Hopefully this post will do that.

Monday, August 3, 2015

13 years in downtown Indy

Yesterday finished my 13th year at Gencon. Unlike most of the previous ones, I got to Indy about 6PM on Wednesday and left about 3:15 on Sunday. In the past I have arrived later and left earlier and in the first couple of years was there only one or two days.

Originally I would go only to help Luke sell and move merch but now to me it is a gaming convention where Luke and others perform and I along with others I know go for various reasons. There are 17 different tracks at Gencon and the chart explains who have participated in which category over the years in the event and not just in a dealer's room demo.


Breakdown per category with examples:
Anime:
Board Games: Redneck Life, Shootin' Ladders, Puerto Rico, Empire Builder.
Non tradable card games: Zombie Ninja Pirates, Dominion, Cards Against Humanity
Electronic gaming: Video games, Battletech pod simulators
Entertainment: Music concerts
Film:
Historical miniatures: Battle games played on created landscapes using representations of former soldiers
Kids events
Live Action Role Playing (LARP)
Miniature hobby events: creating and painting miniatures
Non historical miniatures: Warhammer, Battletech game
Role Playing Games
Seminars: Most are on Wednesday where people talk about being inside gaming
Spouse events: For those dragged to Gencon who don't care about anything with gaming.
Tradable card games: Mostly Magic, in one large section of a hall.
Workshop: Teaching how to create games or miniatures.
Misfits: Anything else.