There were a couple play in wins but as stated, those don't count.
That means for 9 NBA, NHL, and NFL seasons without appearing in the conference semi final and 8 MLB seasons for two teams not in their league championship series as MLB has one less round.
MLB: 13/15 to the eighth power squared = .101 or 9.9 - 1
NBA: 11/15 to the ninth power = .061 or 16.4 -1
NHL: 11/15 to the eighth power times 10/14 (as Las Vegas made the Western conference 15 teams in 2017) = .06 or 16.6 to 1
NFL: 12/16 to the ninth power = .075 or 13.3-1
Total: .0000277245 or 36,070 to 1.
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